What is the actual probability of surfacing the §5 latent liability over the next funding cycle?

A genuinely open question the paper acknowledges but does not quantify. §5 explicitly states: "Expected annual loss is the sum weighted by the probability of surfacing, which is rising across the three vectors documented in §5.4 but remains well below 1.0 in any current year."

The paper documents the trajectory (C-0025 three vectors loading the conditions) and the asymmetry argument that the trajectory does not need to materialize on any specific timeline for the recommendation to follow (C-0027). What it does not do — and explicitly says it does not do — is quantify the probability.

This question is what an actuarial analysis of the §5 liability would need to answer. The numerator is the sum of: probability of an FCA action against an institution with architectural-only failure, probability of a major retraction event surfacing the architecture, probability of a FOIA-driven surfacing, probability of a funder programmatic-compliance failure. None of these has a published base rate that an institution can plug into a forward-looking risk model.

No existing Claim addresses this question. C-0025 (the three-vectors framing) and C-0027 (the asymmetry-binds-without-timing argument) make the question matter less than it would otherwise — but the question itself remains open. Working-group contribution welcome.